The Newsletter 101 Winter 2025

Prabowo Should Take Heed of Discontent Among Indonesian Youths

Iim Halimatusa’diyahNorshahril Saat

Two recent developments in Indonesia indicate that the country’s youth are unhappy with the state of their country, to the extent that some have contemplated leaving the country. Their concerns warrant some examination and action from the incumbent government led by President Prabowo Subianto.

Recently, Indonesian university students held concurrent demonstrations across several cities in Indonesia, calling the movement “Dark Indonesia” (#IndonesiaGelap). 1 Erwina Rachmi Puspapertiwi and Irawan Sapto Adhi, ‘Rangkuman Mahasiswa Demo Indonesia Gelap, Ini Maksud dan Tuntutannya’, KOMPAS.com, 18 February 2025, https://www.kompas.com/tren/read/2025/02/18/091500365/rangkuman-mahasiswa-demo-indonesia-gelap-ini-maksud-dan-tuntutannya. Two demonstrations have been held thus far – on 17 and 21 February 2025 – and Indonesian elites expect many more to come. Protesters have criticised Prabowo Subianto’s performance during his first 100 days as president. The majority were displeased with Presidential Instruction (Inpres) Number 1/2025, which trimmed the state budget and has impacted education, health, public services, and poverty alleviation efforts. 

However, a parallel digital movement is currently trending among the youth, united by the hashtag #KaburDuluAja (#JustRunAway). 2 Budi Sam Law Malau, ‘Wamenaker Noel Suruh WNI Kabur Dulu Ke Luar Negeri Jangan Kembali Lagi, Dinilai Tidak Berempati’, Wartakota, 18 February 2025, https://wartakota.tribunnews.com/2025/02/18/wamenaker-noel-suruh-wni-kabur-dulu-ke-luar-negeri-jangan-kembali-lagi-dinilai-tidak-berempati. Aligned with the #IndonesiaGelap movement, #KaburAjaDulu is an online public expression of accumulated anger and despair due to the uncertain political and economic situation and unfavourable government policies. 3 Sapto Yunus, ‘Ragam Reaksi Atas Tagar Kabur Aja Dulu Yang Viral Di Medsos’, Tempo, 18 February 2025, https://www.tempo.co/politik/ragam-reaksi-atas-tagar-kabur-aja-dulu-yang-viral-di-medsos-1208511. The implied message of the movement is that the country’s youth should consider emigrating. Although the president is currently enjoying high approval ratings of 81 percent 4 Ananda Teresia, ‘High Approval Rating for Indonesia’s Prabowo after First 100 Days, Poll Shows’, Reuters, 20 January 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-president-gets-81-approval-rating-after-first-100-days-poll-shows-2025-01-20/. overall, the support is not equally distributed across all levels in society. 5 Novianti Setuningsih, ‘Tingkat Kepuasan 100 Hari Kinerja Prabowo Tinggi Lampaui Jokowi, Apa Saja Faktor Penyebabnya?’, KOMPAS.com, 19 January 2025, https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2025/01/20/06110091/tingkat-kepuasan-100-hari-kinerja-prabowo-tinggi-lampaui-jokowi-apa-saja. Those with tertiary education showed a higher proportion of dissatisfaction compared to those with secondary education or lower. It would be imprudent for the President to simply dismiss these online and offline expressions of youth discontent, as the protests might escalate and gain support from other segments of the population. They will form the bulk of Indonesian voters since Prabowo has declared his intentions to run for a second term. 6 Yerica Lai, ‘Prabowo to Run Again in 2029’, The Jakarta Post, 15 February 2025, https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2025/02/15/prabowo-to-run-again-in-2029.html.

The state of unhappiness among the country’s youth, whether online or offline, confirms the results of a recent survey conducted by the Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS) Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, which found that Indonesian youths tend to be the most pessimistic in Southeast Asia. 7 Norshahril Saat et al., ‘Youth and Civic Engagement in Southeast Asia: A Survey of Undergraduates in Six Countries’, Trends in Southeast Asia (Singapore: ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, January 2025), https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/trends-in-southeast-asia/youth-and-civic-engagement-in-southeast-asia-a-survey-of-undergraduates-in-six-countries-by-norshahril-saat/. The survey shows that they are frustrated with the country’s unfavourable socio-economic and political conditions. While the president’s populist policies to help young children with free meals could potentially make him one of the most popular presidents if executed well, he should quell youth unhappiness early to avoid a repeat of the reformasi movement in 1998, which toppled the authoritarian Suharto New Order regime. A coup or a large-scale protest similar to 1998 might sound far-fetched, but with social media and hashtag culture today – which were non-existent during the New Order – undergraduates can organise mass movements quicker and on a larger scale. 

The ISEAS survey covered 3081 undergraduate students across six Southeast Asian nations. Respondents are 18-24 years old, with 48.1 percent males and 51.9 percent females. Indonesia was one of the six countries surveyed, in addition to Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. One of the areas the survey covered was youth satisfaction with the political system and a country’s economic outlook. At this, Indonesian youths were the most pessimistic.

Indonesian youths exhibit the highest levels of dissatisfaction with their political system compared to their Southeast Asian counterparts. Figure 1 demonstrates that 71.5 percent of respondents expressed dissatisfaction, with only 27.0 percent stating they were satisfied.

Fig. 1. Southeast Asian Youth Satisfaction with Political System. (Source: ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, Youth and Civic Engagement in Southeast Asia Survey, 2024.)

 

By contrast, the ISEAS survey also demonstrates that 63.9 percent of Indonesian youth agree with taxing the rich to help the economically disadvantaged – the highest compared to other Southeast Asian countries. Economic hardship is indeed a critical factor shaping youth pessimism. The survey indicates that 37.8 per cent of Indonesian youth perceive their national economy as “bad,” and only 2.6 percent believe it to be “very good” [Fig. 2].

Fig. 2. Southeast Asian Youth Perception of Country’s National Economy (Source: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Youth and Civic Engagement in Southeast Asia Survey, 2024.)

 

Furthermore, only 62.6 percent of Indonesian respondents “agreed” or “strongly agreed” that the country’s economic outlook over the next five years is promising, significantly lower than other Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam (88.1 percent) or Malaysia (84.1 percent) [Fig. 3].

Fig. 3. Southeast Asian Youths’ Optimism on Country’s Economic Future (Source: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Youth and Civic Engagement in Southeast Asia Survey, 2024.)

 

The survey also reveals that perceptions of income inequality further exacerbate economic grievances. The survey shows that 67.3 percent of Indonesian youth viewed their country’s income distribution as “very unfair” or “unfair,” the highest percentage in the region. By contrast, Vietnamese and Singaporean youths reported significantly lower dissatisfaction rates, at 18.3 percent and 30.6 percent, respectively. The perception that wealth and opportunities are disproportionately concentrated among the elite contributes to a growing belief that success is unattainable for ordinary citizens, reinforcing pessimism about both economic and political systems.

The significance of the recent physical protests notwithstanding, the government must not take the #KaburDuluAja youth digital resistance lightly, especially when it is aligned with their growing pessimism reflected in the survey. Young Indonesians are increasingly vocal about their struggles with unemployment, lack of upward mobility, and the societal pressure to succeed quickly. In 2024, unemployment among youths aged between 15-24 years was the highest contributor to the national unemployment rate, reaching 16.4 percent. 8 Melynda Dwi Puspita, ‘Hingga Februari 2024, Jumlah Pengangguran di Indonesia Tembus 7,2 Juta Orang’, Tempo, 23 September 2024, https://www.tempo.co/ekonomi/hingga-februari-2024-jumlah-pengangguran-di-indonesia-tembus-7-2-juta-orang--6750. The high youth unemployment rate and difficulties in securing decent work have contributed to a sense of hopelessness, leading some to consider emigration. 9 Susi Setiawati, ‘Darurat Gen Z! Anak Muda RI Gampang Depresi Cari Kerja’, CNBC Indonesia, 28 July 2024, https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/research/20240726151729-128-557928/darurat-gen-z-anak-muda-ri-gampang-depresi-cari-kerja. Indonesia can ill-afford a brain drain as it seeks to become a high-income nation by 2045. 10 Ruth Dea Juwita, ‘Miracle Needed for Indonesia to Become Advanced Economy by 2045: World Bank’, The Jakarta Post, 25 September 2024, https://asianews.network/miracle-needed-for-indonesia-to-become-advanced-economy-by-2045-world-bank/.

Fig. 4. Southeast Asian Youths’ Perception of Country’s Income Inequality (Source: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Youth and Civic Engagement in Southeast Asia Survey, 2024.)

 

Unfortunately, some lawmakers from the House of Representatives and ministers have dismissed the youths’ concerns as momentary emotional expressions and a form of escapism. 11 Daniel Ahmad Fajri, ‘Respons Noel Ebenezer Dikritik soal Tagar Kabur Aja Dulu: Ada Sinisme Politik’, Tempo, 18 February 2025, https://www.tempo.co/politik/respons-noel-ebenezer-dikritik-soal-tagar-kabur-aja-dulu-ada-sinisme-politik-1208853. They have waved the nationalist card and stressed that the nation’s development is the collective responsibility of all citizens, including the country’s youth. 12 Fadjar Hadi, ‘Ketua MPR soal Ramai #KaburDuluAja: Kami Percaya Mahasiswa RI Cinta Tanah Air’, kumparanNEWS, 18 February 2025, https://kumparan.com/kumparannews/ketua-mpr-soal-ramai-kaburduluaja-kami-percaya-mahasiswa-ri-cinta-tanah-air-24WbA3aiL7f. This argument will not go down well with the youth unless the government shows concrete evidence of their performance to bring about better socio-economic and political conditions. While the protest culture is a norm in Indonesia, it also signals youths’ desire to channel their views without going through political representatives and the legislature. The Prabowo administration should listen to youth aspirations if it wants to maintain political legitimacy, run the government effectively, and slow down any slide in approval ratings.

 

Iim Halimatusa’diyah is a Visiting Senior Fellow in the Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, a Senior Lecturer at Islamic State University Syarif Hidayatullah, and a Deputy Director for Research at the Center for the Study of Islam and Society (PPIM) UIN Jakarta. Email: halimatusadiyah_Iim@iseas.edu.sg 

Norshahril Saat is a Senior Fellow and Coordinator at the Regional Social & Cultural Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (Singapore). Email: norshahril_saat@iseas.edu.sg 

This article was first published on Fulcrumhttps://fulcrum.sg/prabowo-should-take-heed-of-discontent-among-indonesian-youth/