Building the New Silk Road. China's Belt and Road Initiative in Context

Version 4.0 October 2019​

Richard T. Griffiths (Leiden University)
Email: r.t.griffiths@hum.leidenuniv.nl

This is the latest version of an electronic library of resources on the BRI. It is intended to offer support to teachers and students studying the BRI as part of their undergraduate education and to act as a springboard to individual projects. It defines the BRI countries as those listed in the original scheme by the National Development and Reform Commission (i.e. everything from mainland Asia to Central and Eastern Europe but, excepting Egypt, excluding Africa). Any suggestions will be welcome.

The IIAS ‘New Silk Road’ project has over 700 researchers wanting to engage in collaborative teaching and research. The project help facilitate making new connections. To join, please write at the email address above.

Key Steps in China’s Policy

09/2013 Xi Jinping Speech at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan launching Silk Road. Summary by MFA of PRC. Also whole speech in Video

10/2013 Xi Jinping Speech to Indonesian parliament launching maritime silk road. Summary by Asean-China Centre. Also whole speech in Video

05/2014 Xi Jinping in Shanghai launching the ‘Asian dream’. Summary by MFA of PRC

03/2015 Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

03/2017 Steadily Promote Cooperation among South China Sea Coastal States. Speech by Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin at the session on the South China Sea of the Bo’ao Forum for Asia Annual Meeting, 25.3.2017 Boao, Hainan

05/2017 Xi Jinping Speech at the Belt and Road Forum

06/2017 Vision of Maritime Cooperation in Building "Belt and Road" (English and Chinese)

01/2018 China’s Arctic Policy

12/2018 China’s third Policy Paper on the European Union Full Text, 18.12.2018.

4/2019 Full text of Report on progress, contributions and prospects of the Belt and Road Initiative, 22.4.2019.

4/2019 Xi Jinping’s Speech at Second Belt and Road Forum 26.4.2019

4/2019 List of Deliverables of the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation 27.4.2019

NEW 11/2019 Xi Jinping Speech to 2nd China International Import Expo, 5.11.2019

Publication Updates

Asian Development Bank Working Paper Series offers many interesting country-specific monographs

Official Chinese government Belt and Road Portal with daily updates of ‘top news’

The China Chronicles. Weekly in-depth reviews of China’s policies are archived here.

Clingendael (The Netherlands Institute of International relations) publishes a weekly newsletter of press commentaries. It also has an archive with previous editions.

Dezan Shira and Associates Silk Road Briefing produces a regular stream of interesting insights

ECNS (English China News Service) has archived its BRI stories since March 2018 at its portal Five Years On: Belt & Road Initiative

HKTDC Insights has a BRI Portal that features many think-tank reports, each with a summary, as well as contributions by the Council’s own staff.

RWR’s Belt and Road Monitor is a bi-weekly newsletter available by subscription

SASS (Shanghai Academy for Social Sciences) has a good Chinese language BRI portal with news and literature feeds

Regular Publications

CAREC (annual) Corridor Performance, Measurement and Monitoring

EBRD (annual) Transition Report

Economist Intelligence Unit (annual) China Going Global Index (needs registration)

OECD (annual) Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India

UNESCAP (biannual) Review of Developments in Transport in Asia and the Pacific

World Economic Forum (annual) Global Competitiveness Report (each edition best looked up in Google)

Occassional

ACCA (2017) The economic benefits of the modern silk road: The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

ADB Institute (2009) Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia, Manila

ADB Institute (2014) Connecting Central Asia with Economic Centers, Tokyo

ADB Institute (2015) Connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia, Manila

ADB (2017) Meeting Asia’s Infrastructure Needs, Manila

Agnew, N. (2004) Conservation of Ancient Sites on the Silk Road. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on the Conservation of Grotto Sites, Mogao Grottoes, Dunhuang, People’s Republic of China, June 28–July 3, 2004

NEW Alonso-Trabanco, J.M. (2019) ‘Geopolitics and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’ Geopolitical Monitor, 4.7.2019

Arvis, J-F., et al (2011) Connecting Landlocked Developing Countries to Markets. Trade Corridors in the 21st Century, World Bank, Washington, DC

Asia Africa Growth Corridor:Partnership for Sustainable and Innovative Development,

ASEAN (2016) Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025, Jakarta

Bastos, P. (2018) Exposure of Belt and Road Economies to China Trade Shocks, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 8503.

Bekkers E. et al (2015) Melting Ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route, CPB Discussion Paper 207, The Hague

NEW The Belt and Road Initiative. Progress, Contributions and Prospects 2019. Office of the Leading Group for Promoting the Belt and Road Initiative, April 2019

Benli, Q (2018)  “The Domestic Consequences of China’s ‘One Belt One Road Initiative’”, Globalization Monitor, 21.11.2018

NEW Bertelsmann Stiftung (2019) Beyond Investment Screening. Expanding Europe’s toolbox to address economic risks from Chinese state capitalism

Bhattacharay, B.N. et al (eds) (2012) Infrastructure for Asian Connectivity, Cheltenham UK and Northampton Ma (ADB)

Bielenberg, A. et al (2016) Financing change: How to mobilize privatesector financing for sustainable infrastructure, McKinsey

Bloomberg (2015) One Belt, One Road Assessing the Economic Impact of China’s New Silk Road

Bloomberg (2018) China’s Empire of Money is Reshaping Global Trade, Bloomberg 1.8.2018

Bond, I. (2017) The EU, the Eurasian Economic Union and One Belt, One Road: Can they work together?

Bluhm, R., Dreher, A., Fuchs, A., Parks,B., Strange, A., and Tierney, M. (2018) Connective Financing: Chinese Infrastructure Projects and the Diffusion of Economic Activity in Developing Countries, Aid Data Working paper 64, September 2018.

NEW Boustany, C.W. and Friedberg, A.L. (2019) Partial Disengagement: A New U.S. Strategy for Economic Competition with China, NBR Special Report, 82, 4.11.2019

Cai, P. (2017) Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Lowy Institute

CAREC (2012) From Landlocked to Linked In, ADB, Manila

CAREC (2013) CAREC Transport and Trade Facilitation Strategy 2020  Endorsed at the 12th Ministerial Conference on Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation 23–24 October 2013 Astana, Kazakhstan, ADB, Manila

Chance A. and Mafinezam A. (2016) American Perspectives on the Belt and Road Initiative Sources of Concern and Possibilities for Cooperation, ICAS, November 2016

China’s  Digital Silk Road, Transcript of Presentation CSIS, Washington, 5.2.2019.

Chen, X. (ed) (2018) How the CEE Citizens View China’s Development, based on household survey, Budapest

China’s pursuit of A New World Media Order (2019) Reporters without Borders, 22.3.2019

NEW CGTN ‘New global survey shows China's national image steadily improving’, 18.10.2019. Review of China National Image Global Survey 2018

NEW CIOB (2019) Silk Road to Silicon Road, How the Belt and Road Initiative Will Transform the Global Economy, London, 3.6.2019

Citi Group (2018) China’s Belt and Road at Five. A Progress Report, December 2018

Cohen, A. and Grant, J. (2018) Future Calling: Infrastructure Development in Central Asia. Unlocking Growth in the Heart of Eurasia, International Tax and Investment Centre, October 2018

‘Competing Visions’, Reconnecting Asia, September 2018

Constantinescu, C. and Ruta, M. (2018) ‘How Old is the Belt and Road Initiative? Long Term Patterns of Chinese Exports to BRI Economies’, World Bank, MTI Practice Notes, 6, December 2018

Cooley, A. (2016) The Emerging Political Economy of OBOR. The Challenges of Promoting Connectivity in Central Asia and Beyond, CSIS, Washington DC

Dadabaev, T. (2018) ‘“Silk Road” as foreign policy discourse: The construction of Chinese, Japanese and Korean engagement strategies in Central Asia’, Journal of Eurasian Studies, 9, 1, 30-41.

DBS Bank (2018) Understanding China: BRI in Southeast Asia – Beyond infrastructure, 20.8.2018

Derudder, B., Liu, X. and Kunaka, C. (2018) Connectivity Along Overland Corridors of the Belt and Road Initiative, World Bank, MTI Discussion Paper no. 6, October 2018

de Soyres, F., Mulabdic, A., Murray, S., Rocha, N. and Ruta, M. (2018) How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8614, October 2018. For criticism see this

NEW Devonshire-Ellis, C (2019) ‘Free Trade Zones on China’s Belt & Road Initiative: The Eurasian Land Bridge’ Silk Road Briefing, 19.9.2019

Djankov, S. et al (eds) China's Belt and Road Initiative: Motives, Scope, and Challenges, PIIE Briefing 16-2, March 2016

Dollar, D. (2015) ‘China’s Rise as a Regional and Global Power, The AIIB and the One Belt, One Road’, Horizons, Summer 2015, 4

Downs, E et al (2017) Asia’s Energy Security and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, NBR Special report 68.

Duchâtel, M. and Sheldon Duplaix, A. (2018) Blue China: Navigating The Maritime Silk Road To Europe, ECFR Policy Brief, April 2018

Economist (2016), One Belt One Road: An Economic Road Map, London

Economist Intelligence Unit (2015) Prospects and challenges on China’s ‘one belt, one road’: a risk assessment report, London

Eder, T. ‘Belt, Road and Sword’, Berlin Policy Journal, 3.1.2019

Ekman, A. et al. (2017) Three Years of China’s New Silk Roads. From Words to (Re)action? Études de l’Ifri.

Ekman, A. et al. (2019) China's Belt & Road and the World: Competing Forms of Globalization, Études de l’Ifri

NEW Emerging Markets Forum (2019) China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Potential Transformation of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, January 2019 (later expanded into book with same title)

Eurasian Development Bank (2018) Belt and Road Transport Corridors: Barriers and Investments, Report 50

Eurasian Development Bank (2018) Silk Road Transport Corridors: Assessment Of Trans-EAEU Freight Traffic Growth Potential, Report 49

European Commission (2018) Connecting Europe and Asia - Building blocks for an EU Strategy, Joint Communication to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank, 19.9.2018

European Council on Foreign Relations (2016) Absorb and Conquer. An EU Approach to Russian and Chinese Integration in Eurasia

European Investment Bank (2017) Wind of change: Investment in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe

European Investment Bank (2018) The European Investment Bank in the Western Balkans

European Parliament (2018) Research for TRAN Committee: The new Silk Route - opportunities and challenges for EU transport

EU-China Observer (2015) Exchanging Ideas On EU-China Relations: An Interdisciplinary Approach, EU-China Observer, 1.15

Fan, C-B et al. (2014) Research and Innovation Cooperation between the EU and China. Study for the European Commission DG RTD by Fraunhofer ISI.

Fedorenko, V. (2013) The New Silk Road Initiatives in Central Asia. Washington, Rethink Paper 10.

Fickling, D (2018) ‘Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road’, Bloomberg, 12.8.2018

Fickling, D. (2018) ‘Railways Put China on a Belt and Road to Nowhere’, Bloomberg 5.11.2018.

Five Connectivity Index Summary of findings, including ranking of 100 countries, December 2018

Foster-McGregor, N. and Verspagen, B. (2016) The Role of Structural Transformation in the Potential of Asian Economic Growth, ADB Economics Working Paper, 479.

NEW Freeman, C.P. and Ōba, M.(2019) Bridging the Belt and Road Divide, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10.10.2019.

Gabuev, A.A.and Zuenko, I.Y. (2018) ‘The “Belt and Road” in Russia: Evolution of Expert Discourse’, Russia in Global Affairs, 4/2018, 142-163.

Garcia-Herrero, A. and Xu, J. (2018) Recent Developments in Trade, Investment and Finance of China’s Belt and Road, HKUST IEMS Working Paper No. 2018-50

Gaspers, J. (2017) China’s “16+1” Equals Much Ado About Nothing?, Reconnecting Asia Analysis 5.12.2017

Gautrin, J-F. (2014) Connecting South Asia to Southeast Asia: Cross-Border Infrastructure Investments, ADBI Working Paper, 483

Gerben, E., ‘Rocketing Asia-Russia container rail volumes spurs investment calls’, JOC.com, 5.8.2018

Ghaisy R. and Zhou, J. (2017) The Silk Road Economic Belt. Considering Security Implications and EU–China Cooperation Prospects, SIPRI, Stockholm.

Ghossein, T., Hoekman, B. and Shingal, A. (2018) Public Procurement in the Belt and Road Initiative, MTI Discussion Paper, 10

Gilbert, S., Wang, Y., Zhou, L and Martinez-Diaz, L. (2018) Will China Seize the Biggest Green Opportunity of the Coming Decade?, World Resources Institute, 8.11.2018.

Godehardt, N. (2016) No End of History A Chinese Alternative Concept of International Order?, SWP Research Paper

Góralczyk, B. (2017) ‘China’s interests in Central and Eastern Europe: enter the dragon’, Springer, European view

Griffiths, R.T. (2017) Revitalising the Silk Road. China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Introduction and Chapters 1-3

NEW Griffiths, R.T., (2019) The New Silk Road. Challenge and Response, Preface and Introduction

GTI, Study for the Trans-Gtr Transport Corridors. Regional Summary Report

The Guardian (2018) Cities of the New Silk Road. Asia, Sihanoukville, Duisberg, Colombo, Gwadar, Kyaukpyu port,

Grübler, J., Bykova, A., Ghodsi, M., Hanzl-Weiss, D., Holzner, M., Hunya, G., and Stehrer, R. (2018) Economic Policy Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative for CESEE and Austria, WIIW Policy Notes and Reports 23, June 2018

Hallgren, H. and Ghiasy, R. (2017) Security and Economy on the Belt and Road: Three Country Case Studies, SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, 2017/4

Hannah, H.I. (2019) ‘The Great Game Moves to Sea: Tripolar Competition in the Indian Ocean Region’ War on the Rocks, 1.4.2019.

Hansen, C.O. et al (2016) Arctic Shipping –Commercial Opportunities and Challenges. Copenhagen

Herydarian, R.J. (2018) The 21st Century Silk Road. Perils and Opportunities of China’s Belt And Road Initiative, ADR Institute

NEW Herrero, A.G.  (2019) Europe’s value chain increasingly dependent on china at the expense of its own regional integration. Natixis beyond Banking, 31.10.2019

Hillman, J.E. ‘The Rise of China-Europe Railways’, CSIS Report, 6.3.2018

Hillman, J.E. ‘China’s Belt and Road is Full of Holes’, CSIS, September 2018

Hilpert, H.G. and Wacker, G (2015) ‘Geoeconomics Meets Geopolitics. China’s New Economic and Foreign Policy Initiatives’ SWP Comments

Hoering, U. (2018) China’s Long March 2.0: The Belt and Road Initiative as development model, Hamburg: VSA-Verlag

Hong, Z. (2016) China’s One Belt One Road: An Overview of the Debate, ISEAS

‘How China is looking beyond borders’, South China Morning Post, 26.4.2019

NEW Horn, S., Reinhart, C and Trebesch, C (2019) China’s Overseas Lending, Kiel Working Paper 2132, 20.6.2019

NEW Hughes, A.C. ‘Understanding and minimizing environmental impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative’, Conversation Biology, March 2019

Hurley, J. e.a (2018) Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective, CGD Policy Paper, 121

ICBC (2017) Belt and Road. Economic Health Index. Navigating complexity by the stars, London

ICBC (2017) Belt and Road. China Connectivity Index. Made to Measure

ICG (2011) Central Asia: Decay and Decline, Asia Report 201

ICG (2017) Central Asia’s Silk Road Rivalries, Europe and Central Asia Report N°245

IDI (2016) Making Inroads: Chinese Infrastructure Investment in ASEAN and Beyond, Ashville NC

ING (2018) ‘Trade impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative’ Economic and Financial Analysis, 6.6.2018

Islam, S. (ed) (2016) EU-CHINA relations. new directions, new priorities, Friends of Europe Discussion paper.

Islam, M. (2019) The Year of the Pig. Can  China’s Belt and Road Initiative save the World from a mud fight?, Euler Hermes Economic Research, 30.1.2019.

NEW Iyer, G. (2019) Mega-Ships in the Indian Ocean: Evaluating the Impact and Exploring Littoral Cooperation, ORF Occassional 204, July 2019

Jakóbowski, J., Popławski, K., Kaczmarski, M. (2018) The Silk Railroad The EU-China rail connections: background, actors, interests. OWS Studies 72, February 2018

Jetin, B. (2017) “One Belt-One Road Initiative” and ASEAN Connectivity: Synergy Issues and Potentialities, Institute of Asian Studies, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Working paper 30

Jiang, Y. (2016) China’s New Development Bank and Infrastructure-led Growth, Norweigan Institute of International Affairs, Policy Brief 18/2016

Johanson, D., Li, J. and Wu T. (eds.) (2019) New Perspectives on China’s Relations with the World, Bristol, 26.3.3019

Joy-Perez, C., and Scissors, D. (2018) Be wary of spending on the Belt and Road, AEI November 2018

NEW Jun, M and Zadek, S (2019) Decarbonizing the Belt and Road. A GREEN FINANCE ROADMAP, September 2019

Kaplan, R.D. (2015) ‘Traveling China’s New Silk Road’, The National Interest, 20.8.2015

Kaczmarski, M. and Jakóbowski, J. (2015) ‘China on Central-Eastern Europe: ‘16+1’ as seen from Beijing’ OWS Commentary 166, 15.4.2015

Kliman, D., Doshi, R., Lee, K. and Cooper, Z. (2019) Grading China’s Belt and Road, CNAS (Center for a New American Security)

Kohli, H.S. and Zucker, L. (2019) An Economic Perspective on the BRI: Five Years after Its Launch, Emerging Markets Forum, Background paper, January 2019

Konings, J. (2018) Trade impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative, ING

Kowalski, B. (2018) ‘The Belt and Road Initiative, China’s foreign policy and the XIX Party Congress’ in Vladimir N. Cvetković (ed.), The New Silk Road: European Perspectives. Security Challenges/Risks within the Initiative 16+1, University of Belgrade, 2018.

NEW Kratz, A. e.a. (2019) ‘New Data on the “Debt Trap”Question’ Rhodium Group Research Note, 29.4.2019

Kulipanova, E. (2012) International Transport in Central Asia: Understanding the Patterns of (Non-) Cooperation, WP Univ Central Asia

Laurelle, M. (ed.) (2018) China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its Impact in Central Asia. CAP, The George Washington University.

Legarda, H. (2018) ‘Chinese mercenaries are tightening security on the Belt and Road’, MERICS China Monitor, 19.10.2018.

Legarda , H. and Nouwens, M (2018) Guardians of the Belt and Road. The internationalization of China’s private security companies, MERICS China Monitor, 16.8.2018

Lehman Brown International Accountants (2017) The Belt and Road Initiative

NEW Lemanhieu, H. (2019) ‘Five big takeaways from the 2019 Asia Power Index’ The Interpreter, 20.5.2019. There is a link to the Index at the end of the article.

Lim, L. (2018) China’s Belt-and-Road Initiative: Future Bonanza or Nightmare? RSIS Commentary, 29.3.2018

Losos, E., Pfaff, A., Olander, L., Mason, S. and Morgan, S. (2019) Reducing Environmental Risks from Belt and Road Initiative Investments in Transportation Infrastructure, World Bank Policy research Working Paper, 8718, January 2019

Liu, X., Blackburn T.M., Song, T., Li, X., Huang, C. and Li, Y. (2019) ‘Risks of Biological Invasion on the Belt and Road’, Current Biology, 29, 3, 24.1.2019 (summary only). Click here for a newspaper article based on the findings.

Lu, H., Rohr, C., Hafner, M. and Knack, A. (2018) China Belt and Road Initiative. Measuring the impact of improving transportation connectivity on trade in the region, RAND Research Report, August 2018

Luft, G. (2017) Silk Road 2.0: US Strategy toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Atlantic Council Strategy Papers.

Maçães, B. (2016) China’s Belt and Road: Destination Europe, Carnegie, Europe

Madhur, S. et al (2009) Roads for Asian Integration: Measuring ADB’s Contribution to the Asian Highway Network, ADB Working Paper on Regional Economic Integration, 37

Masood, E. ‘How China is redrawing the map of world science’ Nature, 1.5.2019

Matura, T. (2015) China-CEE Trade, Investment and Politics, Paper presented at UACES Annual Conference, Bilbao, 7-9.9.2015

Mauk, B. (2019) ‘Can China turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?’ New York Times Magazine, 30.1.2019

Mayer, M. (ed.) (2018) Rethinking the Silk Road. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Emerging Eurasian Relations. Palgrave Macmillan.

Mazarr, M.J., Heath, T.R. and Cevallos, A.S. (2018) China and the International Order, RAND Research Report

McKinsey (2013) Infrastructure productivity: How to save $1 trillion a year

McKinsey (2016) Bridging Global Infrastructure Gaps

McKinsey (2017) China’s Role In The Next Phase Of Globalization

NEW McKinsey (2019) Asia’s Future is Now,

Mierzejewski D., ‘The Role of Local Governments in the New Silk Road’ in: China's New Silk Road. An Emerging World Order ed. by Carmen Mendes, Routledge 2018, p. 135-152.

Mou, N. et al (2018) ‘Spatial Pattern and Regional Relevance Analysis of the Maritime Silk Road Shipping Network’, Sustainability, 10, 4

Frontiers (2018) Prospects for Real Estate along the Belt and Road Initiative

Obe, M and Kishmoto, K (2019) ‘Why China is determined to connect Southeast Asia by rail’ Nikkei Asian Review, 9.1.2019.

OECD (2007) Infrastructure to 2030, Volume 2, Mapping Policy for Electricity, Water and Transport, Paris

OECD (2012) Strategic Transport Infrastructure Needs to 2030, Paris

OECD (2018) ‘The Belt and Road Initiative in global trade, investment and finance landscape’, OECD Business and Finance Outlook, September 2018, 61-102

Olarreaga, M. (2016) Trade, Infrastructure, and Development, ADBI Working Paper 262.

Oxford International Infrastructure Consortium (2017) Bridging the Infrastructure Gap: Global Integration and the Belt and Road Initiative

Pang, I. (2018) “Can China's BRI be a blueprint for long-term economic benefit?” Business Times, 21.8.2018

Paribas (2016) Mega Trends of China (3) The Belt and Road Strategic plan

Parkash, M. (2006) Connecting Central Asia. A Road Map for Regional Cooperation, ADB, Manila

Plummer, M.G. et al (eds.) (2016) Connecting Asia. Infrastructure for Integrating South and Southeast Asia, Cheltenham UK and Northampton Ma.

Pop, I.I. (2016) Strengths and Challenges of China’s “One belt, One road” Initiative, CGSRS

Popescu, N. and Secrieru, S. (eds.) (2018) Third Powers In Europe’s East, Paris

Preston, J. (2013) The Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail. Summary and Conclusions, OECD, Paris

PwC (2014) Developing Infrastructure in Asia Pacific: Outlook, Challenges and Solutions

PwC (2016) China’s new silk route. The long and winding road

PwC (2017) Repaving the Ancient Silk Routes

PwC (2017) Kazakhstan and the New Silk Road. The importance of aligning goals and how to reach them

Putten J.P. van der and Maijnders, M. (2015) China, Europe and the Maritime Silk Road, Clingendael

Putten J.P van der et. al (2016) Europe and China’s New Silk Roads, ETNC Report

NEW Rajah,R., Dayant,A. and Pryke, J.(2019) Ocean of Debt? Belt and Road And Debt Diplomacy In The Pacific, Lowy Institute Analysis, 21.10.2019

Rastogi, C. and Arvis J-F (2014) The Eurasian Connection Supply-Chain Efficiency along the Modern Silk Route through Central Asia, World Bank, Washington DC

Renmin University (2016) Adhering to the Planning, Orderly and Pragmatically Build the “Belt and Road” The Belt and Road Progress Report

NEW Riga, D. New Perspectives on the Belt and Road Initiative Beyond Doctrinal Debates Interview with Richard T. Griffiths, Asia Focus, 118, July 2019.

NEW Rolland, N. (2019) Securing the Belt and Road Initiative. China's Evolving Military Engagement Along the Silk Roads, NBR Special Report, 80, 3.9.2019

NEW Russel, D.R. and Berger, B. (2019) Navigating the Belt and Road Initiative, Asia Society Policy Institiute, Report, June 2019

Saarela, A. (2018) A new era in EU-China relations: more wideranging strategic cooperation? European Parliament, July, 2018

Sagi, J. and Engelberth, I. (2018) ‘The Belt and Road Initiative – a Way Forward to China’s Expansion’ Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations: An International Journal, 4, 1, 9-37.

Sali, E. (2018) 16+1 Initiative in China-EU Relations: ‘Golden Opportunity’ or ‘Divide and Rule’, China-CEE Institute Working Paper 2018, 25.

Scissors, D. (2018) ‘China’s Global Investment. Neither the US nor the Belt and Road’, AEI, July 2018

Schrader , M (2018) ‘World Bank Offers Timely, Dubious Praise for Belt and Road’ in China Brief (Jamestown Foundation) 18, 17, 20.11.2018 Criticism of this report

Šebeňa. M. (2018) Chinese Trade and Investment in the Visegrad Countries: Mapping Increased Exposure and Volatility, China-CEE Institute Working Paper 2018, 11.

Sen, K. (2016) The Determinants of Structural Transformation in Asia: A Review of the Literature, ADB Economcis Working paper, 478

Shanghai Stock Exchange (2017) The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping the global value chain, Shanghai

Shen, H (2018) ‘Building a Digital Silk Road? Situating the Internet in China’s Belt and Road Initiative’  International Journal  of Communication, 12, 2683-2701.

Shen, S. and Chang, W. (2018) ‘A comparative study of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Marshall plan’ Palgrave Communications

NEW Shubert, J. (2017) New Eurasian Age: China’s Silk Road and the EAEU in SCO space © or “Noodles and Meatballs in a Breaking Bowl.

de Soyres, F., Mulabdic, A., Murray, S., Rocha, N. and Ruta, M. (2018) How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 8614.

Starr, S.F. et al (2015) The EU, Central Asia, and the Development of Continental Transport and Trade, Washington/Stockholm

Stegen, K. S. and Kusznit, J. (2015) ‘Outcomes and strategies in the ’New Great Game’: China and the Caspian states emerge as winners’. Journal of Eurasian Studies 6. 91–106.

Sternberg, T. et al. (2017) Central Asian ’Characteristics’ on China’s New Silk Road: The Role of Land-scape and the Politics of Infrastructure. Land, 6, 55.

Swaine, M.D. (2015) ‘Chinese Views and Commentary on the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative’ China Leadership Monitor, 47

Szechenyi, N. (ed) (2018) China’s Maritime Silk Road. Strategic and Economic Implications for the Indo-Pacific Region, CSIS, Washington DC.

The New Silk Road Project (2018) In Summer 2018 a team of young students travelled the ‘silk road’ from Yiwu to London. In a series of blog posts they share their impressions of the sights (old and New) en route.

Thorne, D and Spevack, B, (2017) Harboured Ambitions. How China’s Port Investments are Strategically Reshaping the Indo-Pacific

Toktomushev, K. (2018) ‘Corruption and the New Silk Road’, China-US Focus, 11.10.2018.

Tracy, E. F. et al. (2017) ‘China’s new Eurasian ambitions: the environmental risks of the Silk Road Economic Belt’. Eurasian Geography and Economics. 1–33.

Uberoi, P. (2016) Moving Forward on Parallel Tracks? A New Perspective on the BCIM Initiatives? ICS Working Paper

UIC (2017) Eurasian Rail Corridors, Paris

Umbach, F. AND Raszewski, S. (2016) Strategic Perspectives for bilateral energy cooperation between the EU and Kazakhstan. Geo-economic and geopolitical dimensions in competition with Russia and China’s Central Asia policies. Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.

UNECE/UNESCAP (2008) Joint Study on Developing Euro-Asian Transport Linkages, New York/Geneva

UNESCAP (2014) Regional Connectivity for Shared Prosperity

UNESCO (2011) Prominent Archaeological Sites of Central Asia on the Great Silk Road.

US Chamber of Commerce (2006) Land Transport Options between Europe and Asia: Commercial Feasibility Study

US Congress (2018) Hearing On China's Belt and Road Initiative: Five Years Later, Washington DC

US Congress (2018) U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Annual Report to Congress, November 2018, Washington DC (see pages 259-303)

US Department of Defense (2018) Assessment on United States Defense Implications of China’s Expanding Global Access, 14.1.2019

Vetrovcova, M. and Harnisc, S. (2018) Towards an “Expectations Fulfillment Gap” in 16+1 Relations? China, the EU and the Central and Eastern European Countries, China-CEE Institute Working Paper 2018, 20

Vilaça, G.V. (2017) ‘China and Global Governance: 'One Belt One Road,' the New Development Bank and the Concept of Market State ‘. Kultura Historia Globalizacja - Culture History Globalization 22 (2017): 241-58.

Vilaça, G.V. (2018) "Strengthening the Cultural and Normative Foundations of the Belt and Road Initiative: The Colombo Plan, Yan Xuetong and Chinese Ancient Thought." In Normative Readings of the Belt and Road Initiative: Road to New Paradigms, edited by Shan Wenhua, Kimmo Nuotio and Zhang Kangle, 7-41: Springer, 2018.

Vilaça, G.V. (2018). "China, International Responsibility and Law." In Towards Responsible Governance, edited by Jan Klabbers, Maria Varaki and Guilherme Vasconcelos Vilaça, 53-73. Helsinki: Helsinki University Press, 2018.

Wang, S. (2018) The Openness of the Belt and Road and China-EU Cooperation, China-CEE Institute Working Paper 2018, 22

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Since President Xi Jinping’s speech in September 2013 announcing China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative (BRI), it has scarcely been out of the news. It has also attracted analysis and commentary from academics and think-tanks throughout the world. In China, the reception has been overwhelmingly positive, rarely straying far from official policy pronouncements. In the West, opinion has been mixed. Most security analysts frame the analysis in terms of ‘China’s rise’ and the threat that it poses to US military hegemony and to the established international order in general. Most economists have been cautionary, highlighting the perceived risks in some countries of over-borrowing.

In almost every case, September 2013 is the starting point for analysis, as though China’s BRI is the only event of any relevance. China’s BRI differs from its earlier ‘go global’ policy, whereby Chinese firms were encouraged to seek investment opportunities abroad, through its focus on connectivity and infrastructure, and through its restricted geographical definition. China has defined the Belt and Road as involving 64 countries with 40% of the world’s population and 20% of world trade. That area includes the entire land mass between China and Central-Eastern Europe and within it, China intends to build roads and railways, ports and power stations and to expedite the movement of goods across frontiers. Of course, much of that infrastructure and much of that trade serves China’s interest. As the world’s second largest economy and second largest trader, it would be surprising if it didn’t. And that is China’s ‘belt and road’.

Nobody ‘owned’ the ancient silk roads and nobody ‘owns’ the new silk road of the 21st century. The trucks journey on existing roads, the trains run along existing lines, the container ships that plough the oceans already exist, and businesses fill them and the transport industry makes it all work. Of course, it can all work better by building better highways, by electrifying railways and by improving the flow through borders controls.

Moreover, it is not as though these countries don’t need infrastructure. Recently the Asian Development Bank calculated that Asia requires $1.5 trillion a year in infrastructural investment if it is to sustain a viable development trajectory. At present, it is only capable of financing half of that sum itself. China’s help is needed, but it is not enough. Indeed President Xi has exhorted other countries to join in building the ‘belt and road’. He did not need to do this. They are already there. For example, international development banks are financing highway construction and railway electrification projects across Central Asia and the Caucasus. The European Union is pouring billions into improving the transport infrastructure of new member states and the western Balkans. Japanese firms hold contracts for the construction of High-Speed railways in India and Thailand as well as for the modernisation of the harbour in Jakarta. By leaving all of this out of the story and concentrating solely on China, we are creating our own nightmare. Add a twist of wicked intention to the mixture, and it is little wonder that we have trouble sleeping.

The IIAS is creating a new pillar devoted to interdisciplinary research on the topic of the new silk road, linking the perspective social scientists and historians to the political science and economist approaches that characterises much of the contemporary analysis. In line with IIAS’ inclusive, experimental approach, the IIAS New Silk Road initiative seeks to develop a de-centralised, trans-sectoral network of local partners, able not only to work within the Social Sciences and Humanities, but also with practitioners on the ground (municipalities, local stakeholders, NGOs, artists and cultural actors, community organisations, businesses, trade unions, etc.). Moreover, and whenever possible, the projects within this initiative will engage with existing IIAS programmes under the Institute’s three thematic clusters: urban, global and heritage studies. Partners involved in network platforms, such as the Urban Knowledge Network Asia (UKNA), the European Alliance for Asian Studies, the International Convention of Asia Scholars (ICAS) and the ‘Africa-Asia, A New Axis of Knowledge’ and Cultural Heritage Studies platforms, will also be mobilised.

Richard Griffiths, Programme Coordinator.